Modelling range dynamics of terricolous lichens of the genus Peltigera in the Alps under a climate change scenario

Climate change is expected to strongly impact biodiversity in Alpine ecosystems and species distribution modelling is increasingly used to provide anticipatory information to guide conservation. In this study, (1) we quantified the range loss, range gain, range change and range turnover caused by climate change in the genus Peltigera a group of terricolous lichens widespread across the Alps, and then (2) we evaluated the relationships between the predictors of range dynamics and functional traits. Our results indicate moderate range dynamics for species of the genus Peltigera across the Alps under a climate change scenario. This would imply a relative stability and resistance of these lichens to climate change that may reflect the local persistence of the species under sub-optimal conditions. Our results also suggest that range dynamics could be associated with functional traits mainly related to water-use strategies and to a trade-off between dispersal and establishment ability. This finding suggests that functional traits may strongly modulate the lichen response to climate change and that species with similar functional traits are prone to similar selective pressures.