Influence of glacial isostatic adjustment upon current sea level variations in the Mediterranean

Present-day sea level variations in the Mediterranean depend on various factors, including recent climatic forcing, tectonic activity, anthropogenic effects, and glacio-isostatic adjustment. The latter is governed by mantle rheology and the spatio–temporal distribution of the late-Pleistocene ice sheets and it is expected to produce a long-wavelength pattern of sea level variations across the Mediterranean, mostly determined by the response of the solid earth and of the geoid to loading effects of melt water since the end of deglaciation. Modeling glacio-isostatic effects in this region is necessary for a correct interpretation of tide gauge and GPS time-series, and thereby to constrain both the present-day climate-related sea level rise and regional or local geological, tectonic and human-driven displacements. By an exhaustive exploration of the parameter space of mantle rheology and ice sheet chronologies, in this work we outline upper and lower bounds on the current rate of sea level variation associated with glacial isostatic adjustment in the Mediterranean. This may contribute to a full assessment of coastal vulnerability by sea level rise on a regional and local scale.