Statistical analysis of tourism destination competitiveness

This paper aims at evaluating the competitive position of tourist destinations in the Italian tourism market defining a model of destination choice which enlarges previous works with a detailed analysis of the tourist decision process underlying the selection of holiday destinations. We concentrate on a model of destination choice which allows the evaluation of destination features both for the ex ante demand schedule and for the ex post effective holiday choices. Moreover, we extend previous studies focused on image or attributes (such as climate and scenery) by paying more attention to the perceived supply conditions for accommodation and recreation (museums, amusement parks, wellness centres, transport services, information services). Our model focuses on the tourism decision process which starts from a list of the tourist destinations known by the consumer, proceeds with the definition of the demand schedule and ends with the choice of a specific holiday destination. The demand schedule is a function of individual preferences and destination positioning, while the final decision is a function of the initial demand schedule and the information concerning services for accommodation and recreation in the selected destinations. Finally, we develop a statistical test of the model on sample data based on Italian tourist destination decisions and choices. Modelling the selection process of holiday destination, we evaluate the role of the supply conditions (price, quality, connections facilities, etc.) and of the brand position of each destination in the consumer process decision making. We have collected data on the destination decision process from a sample of 1.200 Italian tourists interviewed in 2007 (October - December); sample data describe the destination preferences of Italian tourists and define their demand schedule and their consumer decisions. Data analysis shows the connections between demand and supply into the Italian tourist market, enlightens the relations between domestic and international market (destinations have been aggregated at regional level for domestic demand and at country level for holidays abroad) and displays the competitive position of Italian tourism destinations in this context. The differences between preferences and choices are modelled with a transition matrix which describes the stochastic short run adjustment process and the long run tourism market trend. Finally, we test the model (using data collected from the sample) and evaluate the factors affecting the process with which consumers manage their tourism decisions, envisaging two main phases: • identification of the Italian tourists demand schedule for the various holiday destinations; • evaluation of the final holiday destination choice of Italian people classified by region (for those who choose domestic destinations) and by countries (for those who choose foreign holiday destinations).