Estimation of irrigation water demand in an area of Northern Italy using Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP)

The objective of the paper is to test a methodology to estimate demand for irrigation water in an area of Northern Italy. To this aim, we use Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) at farm level on a sample of irrigating farms. The main result is the variety and complexity of reactions by different farms, in contrast with the rather homogeneous pricing policy adopted by the irrigation board. The scenarios considered highlights the strongest effects of prices scenarios compared to changes in the (area based) tariff system. PMP shows to be a useful tool in information-poor contexts. However it shows limitations in detecting discontinuities in reactions to scenarios.