Long-term sustainability of clusters: A dynamic theory of declusterisation

In this paper, we build a System Dynamics simulation model to study the long-term counterintuitive consequences of internationalisation strategies of machinery producers in industrial clusters and proposes an explanation for declusterization. To test this hypothesis, we collected empirical data on declusterization and clusters’ exports towards newly industrialized countries, we formalised our hypotheses on the causes of the observed phenomenon in a model, and we explored the behaviour of the model through computer simulation. Comparing the adherence of model-simulated and real data we tested our hypotheses on endogenous causes of declusterization. Our work contributes to widening our perspective on the study of industrial clusters’ dynamics at least under two perspectives. First, we propose an evolutionary perspective that highlights the need to understand the development of clusters’ lifecycle. Second, we warn on long-term, possibly undesired, consequences of clusters’ internationalisation.