Il dualismo del mercato del lavoro e la transizione da lavoro temporaneo a lavoro a tempo indeterminato in provincia di Bologna

In this present study we are going to avail ourselves of figures regarding new employment and employment termination, registered at the Bologna Provincial Labour Exchange for the three-year period 2004-2006, in order to calculate the duration of job placements, according to the type of contract, and the likelihood of temporary workers being made unemployed: in order to do so, we shall utilise the survival curves method based on the Kaplan and Maier filter (Cox and Oates, 1984). Given the impossibility of estimating true transition matrices, in that the database fails to “cover” all outgoing events, the survival curves method at least enables us to estimate the “duration” of permanence in a given state. The utilisation of the Bologna Provincial Employment Centre’s records enables us to cover a sufficiently long period of time, which in turn enables us to obtain sufficiently stable estimates unaffected by contingencies. Clearly, the results may not be generalised for the whole of Italy, although they do nevertheless provide a meaningful insight into the situation of temporary workers (also given the healthy state of the Bologna province’s labour market).