The Impact of Military Downsizing on Two Italian Communities: A Counterfactual Approach Using the Synthetic Control Method

In this paper, we propose a quasi-experimental approach to assess the effect that downsizing of the largest experimental military base in Europe, located in Sardinia, Italy, had on local economies. The study shows the fruitfulness of the Synthetic Control method for assessment of socioeconomic impacts on a single treated unit when other standard methods for impact evaluation are not feasible. It is shown that the local communities analysed have been characterised by different levels of frailty, which should be attentively considered if further downsizing of the base will be placed on the political agenda.