Quantifying the Impact of Scientific Research on Agriculture

With the growing importance of science and innovation for farming, the scope for summary monetary estimates of the impact of agricultural research on productivity suggests internal rates of return of between 7 and 15 per cent, and time lags in maximum impact of around nine years. However, the extent to which the transmission process can be regarded as a ‘black box’ for econometric purposes is considered increasingly inappropriate, since the intermediate steps between research and the impacts of resulting technology adoption are increasingly complex and involve growing numbers of actors, actions and a wider set of policy objectives. Significant difficulties are encountered in quantifying research impacts, including gaps in data for dependent and explanatory variables. New features of the agricultural sector also need to be accounted for, which relate to the role of knowledge engineering, globalisation and the establishment of new impact pathways which are affecting the speed of transmission of innovations. Public support for agricultural research funding is generally justified but returns are not sufficiently high, thus requiring careful reflection on priorities for research investment. Combined use of qualitative and quantitative evaluation approaches can be complementary and more effective than relying on either alone.