A regression model including fetal orbit measurements to predict parturition in Standardbred mares with normal pregnancy

In the mare, foaling is a critical unpredictable event due to a wide range of gestational length and the absence of clear signs of impending parturition. To predict foaling, pH, inversion sodium potassium and increase of calcium concentration in mammary secretions are used. The aim of this study was to find how many days are left until parturition knowing mare's age (A) and parity (P) combined with ultrasonographic measurements of the fetal orbit in Standardbred mares with normal pregnancy. Eighty healthy Standardbred mares with normal pregnancy were hospitalized for attended delivery. Information about mare's age, parity and breeding date were recorded at admission. Transrectal ultrasonography were routinely performed at admission and every 10 days until parturition using a B-mode real time portable unit equipped with a 5–7.5 MHz linear transducer. The images of the fetal orbit were acquired when cornea, anterior and posterior chamber, vitreous body, lens and optic nerve were visible. Longitudinal diameter (LD) was considered as the distance between the two ocular poles, within the vitreous body; transverse diameter (TD), perpendicular to LD and bisecting the lens, was measured as the distance between cornea and retina. At delivery, length of pregnancy and gestational age at each exam were registered. For each ultrasound examination, days before parturition (DBP) were calculated. Seventy-eight Standardbred mares with normal pregnancies were included in the study. Mares' mean age was 9 ± 5 years old (range 4–20 years) and mean gestation length was 341 ± 7 days (range 327–366 days). Thirty-three mares were primiparous and 45 mares were multiparous. Data were analyzed using a regression tree: P, A, LD and TD were used as covariates. DBP was used as the variable of interest. Nine terminal nodes were identified based on the selected covariates. The first split is produced by the TD: fetuses with TD greater or equal than 2.97 cm are further split according to LD, with a threshold of 3.28 cm. The next split is dictated by A; after a further split on LD, the first terminal node is built, containing 34 fetuses with average DBP equal to 10 days. If the A is ≥ 9.5 years a further split is on P: when mares are multiparous, the TD built two different nodes. Since prediction of mare's foaling date is an important factor in stud farm management, the regression model developed may help the veterinarian to estimate the DBP in Standardbred mares with normal pregnancy.