Quantitative Assessment of Domino Effect in an Extended Industrial Area

The destructive potential of domino scenarios is well known, although scarce attention is usually paid to this subject in safety reports and quantitative risk analysis. In recent years, several tools were proposed for the quantitative assessment of domino effect, aimed at the quantitative assessment of industrial risk caused by domino effect. In particular, in previous studies specific damage probability models, escalation thresholds and tools for domino quantitative assessment were developed. However, these tools were not yet applied to a full-scale in-field analysis of an existent industrial area, in order to understand the actual contribution of domino scenarios to the overall risk indexes. In the present study, the results of the application of a specific methodology for domino quantitative assessment to the analysis of the industrial area of Ravenna are presented. The Aripar-GIS software was used to update and upgrade the individual risk maps and the societal risk plots in the area, as well as to investigate the quantitative contribution of domino effect to overall risk indexes.