Probabilistic assessment of the consequences of vessel fragmentation

A model was developed for the assessment of fragment impact probability on a target vessel, following the collapse and fragmentation of a primary vessel due to internal pressure exceeding allowable values. An approach was proposed for the assessment of the possible fragmentation modes of a vessel following the collapse due to internal pressure. Reference fragmentation patterns were defined on the basis of the geometrical characteristics of the process vessels and of the scenario causing the fragmentation. The model provides the probability of impact of a fragment with defined shape, mass and initial velocity on a target of a known shape and at a given position with respect to the source point. The model was validated using available literature data and data retrieved from past accident analysis.