Using the ecosystem services framework for policy impact analysis: An application to the assessment of the common agricultural policy 2014-2020 in the province of Ferrara (Italy)

The objective of this study is to test a methodology for the classification of areas according to the provision of ecosystem services and for the evaluation of the effects of different agricultural policy scenarios. The evaluation focuses on the different categories of Ecosystem Services (ES) and applies a set of indicators available from secondary data sources. Two scenarios were compared, represented by the pre-2014 CAP and the CAP 2014-2020, based on the measures of the RDP 2014-2020 focused on enhancing ecosystems. The approach was implemented under two weighting solutions. First, we assumed that all indicators have equal weight. As a further step, the framework was integrated with a weighting procedure in order to account for the different importance of the various ES indicators. All municipalities offer a significant number of provisioning and cultural services, mainly connected to recreational opportunities. The indicators with higher importance in the area represent provisioning, supporting and regulating services, while cultural services have received less attention. Comparing the results of the simulation of different policy scenarios, there are no significant differences since the CAP 2014-2020 does not provide for measures likely to affect substantially the overall production of ecosystem services. While this result is plausible, the study confirms the limitations of available secondary data in providing a full account of ecosystem services provision and of their variations as a result of policy.