This paper evaluates the efficiency in online betting markets for European (association) football leagues. The existing literature shows mixed empirical evidence regarding the degree to which betting markets are efficient. We propose a forecast-based approach to formally test the efficiency of online betting markets. By considering the odds proposed by 41 bookmakers on 11 European major leagues over the last 11 years, we find evidence of different degree of efficiency among markets. We show that, if best odds are selected across bookmakers, eight markets are efficient while three markets show inefficiencies which imply profit opportunities for bettors. In particular, our approach allows the estimation of the odd thresholds that could be used to set a profitable betting strategy both ex post and ex ante.
Giovanni Angelini, Luca De Angelis (2019). Efficiency of online football betting markets. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 35(2), 712-721 [10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.008].
Efficiency of online football betting markets
Giovanni Angelini;Luca De Angelis
2019
Abstract
This paper evaluates the efficiency in online betting markets for European (association) football leagues. The existing literature shows mixed empirical evidence regarding the degree to which betting markets are efficient. We propose a forecast-based approach to formally test the efficiency of online betting markets. By considering the odds proposed by 41 bookmakers on 11 European major leagues over the last 11 years, we find evidence of different degree of efficiency among markets. We show that, if best odds are selected across bookmakers, eight markets are efficient while three markets show inefficiencies which imply profit opportunities for bettors. In particular, our approach allows the estimation of the odd thresholds that could be used to set a profitable betting strategy both ex post and ex ante.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
