PARAMETRIC PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF HIGH EFFICIENCY BUILDINGS: INVERSE MODELLING TO LINK EFFECTIVELY DESIGN AND OPERATION PRACTICES

High efficiency paradigms and rigorous normative standards for new and existing buildings are fundamental components of sustainability and energy transitions strategies today. However, optimistic assumptions and simplifications are often considered in the design phase and, even when detailed simulation tools are used, the validation of simulation results remains an issue. Further, empirical evidences indicate that the gap between predicted and measured performance can be very large, due to different types of errors committed during building life cycle phases. Consequently, the discrepancy between a priori performance assessment and a posteriori measured performance can hinder the development and diffusion of energy efficiency practices, especially if we consider the problem of investment risk. The approach proposed in the research is rooted on the integration of parametric and probabilistic simulation techniques, used in design phase, and inverse modelling techniques used in measurement and verification (M&V) practice, in operation phase. The research concentrates on the analysis of these technical aspects for a Passive House case study building, showing an efficient and transparent way to link design and operation performance analysis, reducing effort in modelling and monitoring. The approach aims to detect and highlight critical assumptions in design phase and to ensure the robustness of energy performance management in operation phase, providing probabilistic performance boundaries to ease monitoring process.