Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high morbidity and mortality, also among anticoagulated patients. Our aim was to evaluate the predictive role for long-term mortality of a series of risk stratification scores associated with cardiovascular or thromboembolic outcomes (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, TIMI-AF), and bleeding complications (HAS-BLED) in an unselected population of patients with AF. Methods: Single center, observational, prospective registry of consecutive patients with AF, undergoing clinical/echocardiographic evaluation in a University Hospital, as either in-patients or out-patients. We assessed the role of each single score as predictors of long-term survival according to clinical setting. Results: We enrolled 1051 patients, mean age 72 ± 12 years, who were followed for 797 ± 298 days. All the tested scores showed a good performance in prediction of mortality, together with several clinical factors (older age, chronic heart failure, diabetes, renal impairment, previous transient ischemic attack, left ventricular ejection fraction). The values at C-statistics ranged between modest (0.608–0.684) of inpatients to good (0.708–0.751) in outpatients without any statistical difference between the scores, excepted a lower performance of HAD-BLED. Conclusions: Risk scores currently adopted for decision making on starting oral anticoagulation provide good prediction of long-term survival in unselected AF patients, especially in the outpatient setting.

Atrial fibrillation and prediction of mortality by conventional clinical score systems according to the setting of care

Diemberger, Igor
;
Fantecchi, Elisa;Reggiani, Maria Letizia Bacchi;Martignani, Cristian;Angeletti, Andrea;Massaro, Giulia;Ziacchi, Matteo;Biffi, Mauro;
2018

Abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high morbidity and mortality, also among anticoagulated patients. Our aim was to evaluate the predictive role for long-term mortality of a series of risk stratification scores associated with cardiovascular or thromboembolic outcomes (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, TIMI-AF), and bleeding complications (HAS-BLED) in an unselected population of patients with AF. Methods: Single center, observational, prospective registry of consecutive patients with AF, undergoing clinical/echocardiographic evaluation in a University Hospital, as either in-patients or out-patients. We assessed the role of each single score as predictors of long-term survival according to clinical setting. Results: We enrolled 1051 patients, mean age 72 ± 12 years, who were followed for 797 ± 298 days. All the tested scores showed a good performance in prediction of mortality, together with several clinical factors (older age, chronic heart failure, diabetes, renal impairment, previous transient ischemic attack, left ventricular ejection fraction). The values at C-statistics ranged between modest (0.608–0.684) of inpatients to good (0.708–0.751) in outpatients without any statistical difference between the scores, excepted a lower performance of HAD-BLED. Conclusions: Risk scores currently adopted for decision making on starting oral anticoagulation provide good prediction of long-term survival in unselected AF patients, especially in the outpatient setting.
Diemberger, Igor*; Fantecchi, Elisa; Reggiani, Maria Letizia Bacchi; Martignani, Cristian; Angeletti, Andrea; Massaro, Giulia; Ziacchi, Matteo; Biffi, Mauro; Lip, Gregory Y.H.; Boriani, Giuseppe
File in questo prodotto:
Eventuali allegati, non sono esposti

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11585/632919
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? 2
  • Scopus 6
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 8
social impact