A Priori Assessing the Quantitative Effect of New Investments on Tourism Flows: a Beta Regression Model

Planning and implementing strategies to develop tourism has long been a priority issue for policy makers and decision makers: hence, a remarkable interest for quantitative methods aimed to assess the extent to which possible modifications of some determinants can affect the tourism flows of the destination country. Over the last decades, indeed, in Italy as well as in many other destinations worldwide, most of policy makers have shifted their priority from the promotion of inbound tourism to the promotion of domestic tourism. In this framework, the present study builds on an Italian regional dataset and implements a beta regression model that allows to simulate and a priori assess the quantitative effect of making new investments, such as new accommodation facilities or new congress centres, on tourism flows, relative market shares and competitive position of any destination.