Seasonal weather predictions and crop modelling for wheat yield forecasting in Northern Italy

A coupled numerical soil water balance and crop growth model (Criteria/Wofost - C/W) developed within the European R&D projects DEMETER and ENSEMBLES (Marletto et al., 2007), calibrated with field data from the Bologna university experimental farm of Cadriano, is used to predict wheat yield up to three months before harvest. The prediction of meteorological fields needed as input by the model are obtained by applying the statistical downscaling scheme developed at the regional weather service of Emilia-Romagna to the global operational multi-model seasonal predictions produced at the European weather centre (Ecmwf) within the EURO-SIP Project. This paper presents the methodology used and the preliminary results obtained in view of developing an operational wheat yield prediction chain.