The role of perceived competence and risk perception in cycling near misses

Cyclists’ crashes account for a relatively large proportion of road fatalities and this proportion is increasing. Research suggests that near misses can be used as surrogate measures of crashes, based on the assumption that they share common causes. Also, in the cycling domain, it has been suggested that near miss incidents may provide ‘early warnings’ of situations or behaviours that could lead to crashes. The aim of this study was to investigate the role played by perception of risk and control on the exposure to risky situations, such as the involvement in mixed traffic. We administered a questionnaire to 298 Italian cyclists measuring perceived competence (i.e. perceived control and overconfidence), risk perception of interactions with cars, bicycle use, avoidance of mixed traffic and recent experiences of near misses. Path analysis using Bayesian estimation showed that perceived control, mediated by overconfidence, had a positive indirect effect on bicycle use and a negative one on avoidance of mixed traffic, while it acted as a moderator in the relationship between risk perception of interaction with cars and avoidance of mixed traffic. Furthermore, the mediation paths revealed the indirect effects of perceived control on near misses through exposure. Results highlighted the importance of considering the role of individuals’ perception of their ability to cycle with regard to near misses and provided new insight on how cyclists regulate their behaviour, as well as how such behaviour leads to different safety outcomes. Results have implications regarding theory, infrastructure and the application of new safety technologies.