The objective of the paper is to model the effects of several policy and price scenarios between 2006 and 2021 on a few French and Italian arable farm households. It uses a multi-criteria dynamic programming model of farm households, calibrated on primary data from a survey of single farms through a questionnaire. Simulation results show that, as expected, reducing or cutting payments from 2013 onwards (Scenarios 3) have a stronger negative impact on farming activities than maintaining the payments does (Scenarios 2). However, a reduction in payments has a less pronounced impact on income from farming than a decrease in prices does. But a combination of price decrease and payment reduction may lead to abandonment by some farms. Results also highlight that adaptation of farm activities is more important than investment as a reaction to both policy and price changes.
Modelling the impact of post-2006 agricultural policy scenarios on farm behaviour: The case of arable farms in France and Italy / Viaggi D.; Raggi M.; Gomez y Paloma S.; Latruffe L.; Desjeux Y.. - ELETTRONICO. - (2008), pp. 1-17. (Intervento presentato al convegno “Journées de Recherches en Sciences Sociales INRA-SFER-CIRAD” tenutosi a Lille, France nel 11-12 December 2008).
Modelling the impact of post-2006 agricultural policy scenarios on farm behaviour: The case of arable farms in France and Italy
VIAGGI, DAVIDE;RAGGI, MERI;
2008
Abstract
The objective of the paper is to model the effects of several policy and price scenarios between 2006 and 2021 on a few French and Italian arable farm households. It uses a multi-criteria dynamic programming model of farm households, calibrated on primary data from a survey of single farms through a questionnaire. Simulation results show that, as expected, reducing or cutting payments from 2013 onwards (Scenarios 3) have a stronger negative impact on farming activities than maintaining the payments does (Scenarios 2). However, a reduction in payments has a less pronounced impact on income from farming than a decrease in prices does. But a combination of price decrease and payment reduction may lead to abandonment by some farms. Results also highlight that adaptation of farm activities is more important than investment as a reaction to both policy and price changes.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
