The Health Gain Obtainable from Pancreatic Resection for Adenocarcinoma in the Elderly.

BACKGROUND: In treating pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), age does not represent a contraindication to surgery, even if aging is known to increase postoperative mortality and morbidity. Furthermore, long-term outcome remains poor and there is much debate on whether to operate or not in elderly patients. The aim of this study was to provide a general framework to evaluate the health gain obtainable from surgery for PDAC in relationship with age and tumor stage. METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was built taking into consideration pertinent literature from population-based studies regarding surgical and non-surgical outcomes for stages I-II PDAC. The health gain obtainable from surgery, in comparison to the choice of not resecting patients, was measured through number needed-to-treat (NNT) calculation. RESULTS: Considering the typical stage I-II PDAC characteristics, the model showed that the mean lifespan after surgery was 28.1 ± 3.9 months and 9.3 ± 1.5 months after non-surgical therapies. The NNT with surgery in order to prevent one death at 5 years was 6 (95% CI 4-10), indicating an overall high gain obtainable from surgery. Sensitivity analyses on patient age and tumor stage suggested that starting from 76 years onward, the NNT progressively increases, resulting in a low cure rate of surgery in the elderly and becoming potentially harmful for patients aged above 80 years. These figures were more pronounced for tumor stages IIA and IIB. CONCLUSIONS: The present general framework suggests that the lifespan benefit obtainable from pancreatectomy in elderly patients is uncertain especially with the advancing of the tumor stage.