FACTORS PREDICTING MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY AFTER SURGERY FOR COMPLICATED ACUTE DIVERTICULITIS: A SINGLE CENTER EXPERIENCE

Introduzione Complicated acute diverticulitis (CAD) occurs in approximately 10 to 25 percent of patients affected by diverticular disease and a surgical treatment is often necessary. Postoperative morbidity and mortality are still high, up to 40% of cases in patients with generalized peritonitis. The purpose of this study is to identify predictive prognostc factor for postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients requiring surgical intervention for CAD. Pazienti e metodi From September 2011 to May 2015 170 patients underwent surgical intervention for diverticular disease in our unit. Of these, 119 patients required urgent surgery for complicated acute diverticulitis (CAD). Pre-, intra- and postoperative findings were collected in a prospective database. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression was performed to find out independent predictive factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality. Statistical analysis was made with SPSS v.13.0 and significance was considered with p value < 0.05. Risultati There were 56 males and 63 females with mean age of 68 ± 15 years. 100 patients (84.0%) were at first hospital admission for diverticular disease and in 16 cases (13.4%) the disease was localized at right colon or ceacum. A stomy was required in 84 patients (70.6%) and postoperative morbidity rate was 52,9% according Clavien–Dindo Classification. Anyway only 10.9% of patients were affected by grade III or IV complication with a mortality rate of 16.8%. At multivariate analysis the presence of a postoperative medical complication was the only predictive factor for mortality (OR 10.3; 95%CI 2.1-51.3 p=0.004) while the presence of COPD and purulent or fecal peritonitis were not statistically significant (OR 3.3; 95%CI 0.9-12.2 p=0.073 and OR 3.1 95%CI 0.8-11.6 p=0.099 respectively). For postoperative morbidity the logistic regression showed that patients ≥75 years and with ASA score > 2 were independently associated with postoperative morbidity (OR 2.8; 95%CI 1.1-7.2 p=0.028 and OR 5.3 95%CI 2.0-13.9 p=0.001 respectively). The same factors were independent prognostic factor associated with medical complication with OR 3.0; 95%CI 1.1-7.8 p=0.028 and OR 6.5 95%CI 2.0-21.3 p=0.002 respectively. Multivariate analysis of factor predicting surgical morbidity showed that age ≥75 was the only predictive factor for postoperative surgical morbidity (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.1-8.8 P=0.027). Conclusioni In our experience the majority of patients who require surgery for CAD are at the first episode of acute diverticulitis. Medical complication after surgery for CAD is the only factor associated with mortality while surgical complications do not seem to have the same weight. Age≥75 years and ASA score >2 are independent predictive factors for postoperative medical complications while only age seems to have a significant effect on surgical morbidity.