The New Geography of Mafia Activity. The Case of a Northern Italian Region

Mafias move across territories. Recent research identifies push and pull factors that can explain mafia movement, but systematic empirical testing of the structural determinants of mafia activity in non-traditional territories is still lacking. By using new data on > 1,500 municipalities of a Northern Italian region, coupled with recently developed statistical techniques, this study looks at how social, economic, and political factors contribute to explaining the presence of mafias in a given area of a non-traditional region. The study finds that the presence of business sectors with low entry barriers significantly increases the probability of mafia activity, and that low levels of civic culture constitute facilitating conditions as well. Moreover, findings show that geography is important, and suggest that spatial spillover mechanisms are at work.