The patterns of ethnic settlement and violence: a local-level quantitative analysis of the Bosnian War

The debate on the link between ethnicity and violence has been raging in political science literature since the end of the Cold War. Often, cross-country quantitative studies dismissed the importance of ethnic heterogeneity as a source of violent conflict. How the patterns of ethnic settlement within a country affect the severity of violence, though, has not yet been studied through similar techniques. In this essay, we build and analyse a data set of major violence-related variables collected at the local level during the 1992–1995 war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. What emerges is that the local distribution of the population, in terms of the number and relative size of the groups, is a key factor in explaining the intensity of violence in the Bosnian municipalities.