This paper analyses the dynamics of the Italian energy system, considering a long period of time: 1861-2010. The worldwide context is considered too, for the sake of comparison and in order to have a general framework. The aim is to uncover and characterize the mechanisms governing primary energy substitutions. The logistic replacement model is used, following the IIASA approach. Some characteristics of energy substitutions - such as penetration regular patterns, great inertia, de-carbonization - are verified, as well as some features not explained by the model - such as the coal resistance during the last few decades. Some particular aspects of the Italian system are highlighted; in particular - although Italy does not have nuclear energy production - according to the model it can be considered a country with an appreciable nuclear energy contribution to national consumption.

Long term dynamics of energy systems: The Italian case / Vestrucci, Paolo; Schiavi, Serena; Orlandelli, Carlo Maria. - In: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE. - ISSN 0040-1625. - STAMPA. - 96:(2015), pp. 266-276. [10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.020]

Long term dynamics of energy systems: The Italian case

VESTRUCCI, PAOLO;ORLANDELLI, CARLO MARIA
2015

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics of the Italian energy system, considering a long period of time: 1861-2010. The worldwide context is considered too, for the sake of comparison and in order to have a general framework. The aim is to uncover and characterize the mechanisms governing primary energy substitutions. The logistic replacement model is used, following the IIASA approach. Some characteristics of energy substitutions - such as penetration regular patterns, great inertia, de-carbonization - are verified, as well as some features not explained by the model - such as the coal resistance during the last few decades. Some particular aspects of the Italian system are highlighted; in particular - although Italy does not have nuclear energy production - according to the model it can be considered a country with an appreciable nuclear energy contribution to national consumption.
2015
Long term dynamics of energy systems: The Italian case / Vestrucci, Paolo; Schiavi, Serena; Orlandelli, Carlo Maria. - In: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE. - ISSN 0040-1625. - STAMPA. - 96:(2015), pp. 266-276. [10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.020]
Vestrucci, Paolo; Schiavi, Serena; Orlandelli, Carlo Maria
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/551030
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