Long term dynamics of energy systems: The Italian case

This paper analyses the dynamics of the Italian energy system, considering a long period of time: 1861-2010. The worldwide context is considered too, for the sake of comparison and in order to have a general framework. The aim is to uncover and characterize the mechanisms governing primary energy substitutions. The logistic replacement model is used, following the IIASA approach. Some characteristics of energy substitutions - such as penetration regular patterns, great inertia, de-carbonization - are verified, as well as some features not explained by the model - such as the coal resistance during the last few decades. Some particular aspects of the Italian system are highlighted; in particular - although Italy does not have nuclear energy production - according to the model it can be considered a country with an appreciable nuclear energy contribution to national consumption.