BACKGROUND. Many analyses demonstrate that rising unemployment rates generate a feeling of uncertainty that can influence fertility behaviour, inducing a short-term reduction in fertility. The impact of the recent economic crisis in Italy is controversial in the current demographic literature. OBJECTIVE. We wish to evaluate whether the recent changes in male and female unemployment are differently linked to fertility in different geographic areas of Italy. METHODS. We used the following official aggregate data for the period 1995–2012: unemployment quarterly rates from the Labour Force Surveys conducted by the National Institute of Statistics (Istat) and quarterly general fertility rates. We applied a monitoring approach for the identification of structural breaks inside both of the time series and used a dynamic regression to identify specific temporal links between unemployment and fertility. RESULTS . Both male and female unemployment rates are negatively associated with fertility in the northern and central regions of Italy. Unemployment rates seem to be good predictors of fertility in these regions, although male unemployment appears to further reduce fertility beyond the reduction predicted by female unemployment. CONCLUSIONS. In northern and central Italy, the recent rise in unemployment is negatively correlated with the fertility rate. The recent economic downturn seems to be linked in a more ambiguous and weak way to the fertility rate in the southern area.

The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy: A time-series analysis / Cazzola, Alberto; Pasquini, Lucia; Angeli, Aurora. - In: DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH. - ISSN 2363-7064. - ELETTRONICO. - 34:(2016), pp. 1.1-1.38. [10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.1]

The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy: A time-series analysis

CAZZOLA, ALBERTO
;
PASQUINI, LUCIA;ANGELI, AURORA
2016

Abstract

BACKGROUND. Many analyses demonstrate that rising unemployment rates generate a feeling of uncertainty that can influence fertility behaviour, inducing a short-term reduction in fertility. The impact of the recent economic crisis in Italy is controversial in the current demographic literature. OBJECTIVE. We wish to evaluate whether the recent changes in male and female unemployment are differently linked to fertility in different geographic areas of Italy. METHODS. We used the following official aggregate data for the period 1995–2012: unemployment quarterly rates from the Labour Force Surveys conducted by the National Institute of Statistics (Istat) and quarterly general fertility rates. We applied a monitoring approach for the identification of structural breaks inside both of the time series and used a dynamic regression to identify specific temporal links between unemployment and fertility. RESULTS . Both male and female unemployment rates are negatively associated with fertility in the northern and central regions of Italy. Unemployment rates seem to be good predictors of fertility in these regions, although male unemployment appears to further reduce fertility beyond the reduction predicted by female unemployment. CONCLUSIONS. In northern and central Italy, the recent rise in unemployment is negatively correlated with the fertility rate. The recent economic downturn seems to be linked in a more ambiguous and weak way to the fertility rate in the southern area.
2016
The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy: A time-series analysis / Cazzola, Alberto; Pasquini, Lucia; Angeli, Aurora. - In: DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH. - ISSN 2363-7064. - ELETTRONICO. - 34:(2016), pp. 1.1-1.38. [10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.1]
Cazzola, Alberto; Pasquini, Lucia; Angeli, Aurora
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
(74) A. CAZZOLA, A. ANGELI, L. PASQUINI (2016) The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy. A time series analysis.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipo: Versione (PDF) editoriale
Licenza: Licenza per Accesso Aperto. Creative Commons Attribuzione - Non commerciale (CCBYNC)
Dimensione 515.57 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
515.57 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/543326
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 62
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 48
social impact