Indici meteorologici di pericolosità di incendio forestale: una valutazione di efficacia nella regione Emilia-Romagna.

Abstract: Several forest fire hazard indices are available, based on current and past atmospheric conditions, as well as on land conditions and of potentially combustible vegetation state. In this work we verified the effectiveness of two indices, operationally used in Emilia-Romagna region, Italy, comparing them with forest fire data available for years 2004-2008. II is the ignition index, representing soil and light fuel moisture status in view of the risk of possible fire start, while IP is propagation index, representing the risk of fire development and expansion after ignition. In Emilia-Romagna II and IP are updated daily by the regional weather service and made available in the form of maps to the local civil protection agency. IP and II values where compared with official statistics on both the number and size of forest fires in six sites representative of the plain and of the Apennine mountain ridge. Comparisons showed that anomalies of the indices, determined in comparison with average values of years 1990-2011, were more related with both the number and size of forest fires, than the absolute values assumed by the indices.