A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

An approach for quantifying the human health risk caused by industrial sources, which, daily or accidentally, emit dangerous pollutants able to impact on different environmental media, is introduced. The approach is performed by the HHRA-GIS tool which employs an integrated, multimedia, multi-exposure pathways and multi-receptors risk assessment model able to manage all the steps of the analysis in a georeferenced structure. Upper-bound excess lifetime cancer risk and noncarcinogenic hazards are the risk measures, the spatial distribution of which is calculated and mapped on the involved territory, once all the pathways and receptors of the study area are identified. A sensitivity analysis completes the calculations allowing to understand how risk estimates are dependent on variability in the factors contributing to risk. The last part of the paper makes use of a case study concerning a working industrial site to put in evidence in which way the designed tool can help local authorities and policy makers in managing risks and planning remedial and reduction actions. The considered geographical area is a hypothetical territory characterized by residential, agricultural and industrial zones. The presence of two sources of contamination, a municipal waste incinerator (MWI) and a contaminated site, are evaluated by the tool application. Various typologies of receptors have been taken into account, each of them characterized by different anatomical and dietary properties. The achieved results are analyzed, compared with acceptable and background values and alternatives of minor environmental impact calculated.