Assessment of fragment projection hazard: Probability distributions for the initial direction of fragments

The evaluation of the initial direction and velocity of the fragments generated in the fragmentation of a vessel due to internal pressure is an important information in the assessment of damage caused by fragments, in particular within the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of chemical and process plants. In the present study an approach is proposed to the identification and validation of probability density functions (pdfs) for the initial direction of the fragments. A detailed review of a large number of past accidents provided the background information for the validation procedure. A specific method was developed for the validation of the proposed pdfs. Validated pdfs were obtained for both the vertical and horizontal angles of projection and for the initial velocity of the fragments.