Gender difference in hepatic steatosis index and lipid accumulation product ability to predict incident metabolic syndrome in the historical cohort of the Brisighella Heart Study.

Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic syndrome are strongly related from both an epidemiological and a pathological point of view. The main aim of our study was to evaluate if two validated indexes of NAFLD are able to predict the 4-year metabolic syndrome incidence in a large population sample of pharmacologically untreated subjects without metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, history of alcohol abuse, or known liver diseases at the baseline. METHODS: From the database of the Brisighella Heart Study, we selected a subsample of 824 pharmacologically untreated subjects (male, 401; female, 423) without metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, alcohol abuse, or known liver diseases at the 2004 survey and revisited in 2008. The Hepatic Steatosis Index (HSI) and Lipid Accumulation Product (LAP) values were calculated for everyone to evaluate their predictive role for metabolic syndrome through a Cox-regression analysis adjusted by metabolic syndrome components. RESULTS: We observed 46 new cases of metabolic syndrome (male, 25; female, 21) with a cumulative incidence of 5.6% (1.4% per year): 6.2% in men (1.5% per year), 4.9% in women (1.2% per year). In women, the 4-year metabolic syndrome predictors (R(2)=0.680) were age [odds ratio (OR) 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-1.15], HSI (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.15-1.26), and lnLAP (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.14-1.17), whereas in men they were (R(2)=0.554) age (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.11-1.14) and lnLAP (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.15-1.18). CONCLUSION: HSI and LAP differently predict the 4-year incidence of metabolic syndrome. In women, both indexes can be considered significant predictors, whereas in men only LAP can be considered predictive.