A Negotiation Support System for disputes between Iraq and Turkey over the Tigris-Euphrates basin

This paper describes a flexible prototype negotiation support system (NSS), to be used in a participatory context, based on the negotiation setting that was suggested by Turkey: bilateral negotiations between Turkey and Iraq, annual analysis, the assumption that Iraq and Syria have no inherent water rights, differences in water entitlements or needs are neglected, analysis restricted to the Tigris-Euphrates basin, current irrigation technologies in Turkey and Iraq, and negotiations on water quantity and quality that account for national dam construction plans. The analysis is based on all principles of the 1997 UN Convention that are recognised by Turkey: net benefits defined at a basin level, equitable use, non-significant harm, maintenance of water quality. The goal is to achieve a balance of interests among the parties that combines analysis of the quantity and quality of water and the net benefits. The negotiation outcomes arise from simulated dynamic interactions between the parties. We demonstrate an application of the NSS based on plausible and reasonable, but tentative, data to provide insights into water allocation rules, side-payments, water requirements of the two parties, and cooperation. Allocations should meet Iraqi non-significant harm and equitable use constraints and allocate the remaining water to Turkey for agricultural use in the feasible negotiation scenario, whereas allocations should meet Turkish maximum agricultural water demands and allocate the remaining water to Iraq for agricultural use in the unlikely cooperation scenario.