In an attempt to provide a unified scheme for the simulation of changing behaviors of hydrological systems, a theoretical framework for stationary and non-stationary modeling is presented. The main triggers for hydrological change are reviewed, their impact on the long-term properties of the inherent system are analyzed, and theoretical solutions are proposed for their representation. Model calibration is also discussed along with the impact of hydrological change on simulation uncertainty. Non-stationarity and its simulation are examined as well.We propose a stochastic approach that is general, and allows a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty. The proposed framework is relevant to integrated modeling of hydrology and human impacts and therefore fits into the concepts of ‘Panta Rhei’, the scientific decade 2013–2022 promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences.
Serena Ceola, Alberto Montanari, Demetris Koutsoyiannis (2014). Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change. WIRES. WATER, 1, 427-438 [10.1002/wat2.1038].
Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change
CEOLA, SERENA;MONTANARI, ALBERTO;
2014
Abstract
In an attempt to provide a unified scheme for the simulation of changing behaviors of hydrological systems, a theoretical framework for stationary and non-stationary modeling is presented. The main triggers for hydrological change are reviewed, their impact on the long-term properties of the inherent system are analyzed, and theoretical solutions are proposed for their representation. Model calibration is also discussed along with the impact of hydrological change on simulation uncertainty. Non-stationarity and its simulation are examined as well.We propose a stochastic approach that is general, and allows a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty. The proposed framework is relevant to integrated modeling of hydrology and human impacts and therefore fits into the concepts of ‘Panta Rhei’, the scientific decade 2013–2022 promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.