Spacecraft Doppler Tracking: Noise Budget and Accuracy Achievable in Precision Radio Science Observations

We discuss noise in Doppler tracking of deep space probes and provide a detailed noise model for Doppler radio science experiments. The most sensitive current experiments achieve fractional frequency fluctuation noise of about 3x10^-15 at 1000s integration time, corresponding to better than 1 micron per second velocity noise. Our noise model focuses primarily on the Fourier range [10^-4 – 1] Hz, but we briefly discuss noise in lower-frequency observations. We indicate applications of the noise model to experiment planning, identify phenomena limiting current Doppler sensitivity, and discuss the prospects for significant sensitivity improvements.