Quantitative Assessment of Domino Effect in the Framework of Land-Use Planning

Land-use planning with respect to major accident hazards needs to deal with high-consequence low-probability (HILP) events. Consolidated methodologies, usually based on bow-tie analysis, exist to identify accident scenarios deriving from activities involving the use or the storage of hazardous substances. However, conventional approaches usually are not able to capture escalation scenarios. In the present study a methodology developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect is applied to the analysis of an extended industrial area. A set of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability were developed and combined to improved criteria for the calculation of threshold values for equipment damage. A specific effort was dedicated to the improvement of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability due to jet and pool fires. The results evidence that quantitative risk assessment of escalation hazard is of fundamental importance in order to identify critical equipment and to address prevention and protection actions.