OBJECTIVES: To calculate the risk of developing pre-eclampsia (PET) in a consecutive series of low-risk women at 18-24 weeks' gestation, using recently published logistic regression models. METHODS: This was a prospective study, with complete follow-up, in a consecutive series of unselected low-risk singleton pregnancies. Uterine artery pulsatility index as well as a combination of maternal factors were recorded at 18-24 weeks' gestation. The distribution of the estimated risks for the 16 PET patients was compared with that obtained for 136 women who had a normal pregnancy, as assessed by routine testing. A receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the detection rate at fixed false-positive rates (FPRs) of 5%, 10% and 20% and the corresponding odds cut-offs. RESULTS: Just 1/16 (6.2%) women with PET developed the disease before the 34(th) week of gestation. Using the 'All PET' logistic regression model, for 16 PET cases the overall median odds was 1 : 1454, higher compared with that of 1 : 41635 estimated for controls. Using the 'PET >or= 34 weeks' model, the median odds of the 15 women who developed PET late was 1 : 3405, compared with 1 : 40785 for controls. In the case of PET before 34 weeks, the risk was 1 : 426373 vs. 1 : 4159823126 estimated for controls ('PET < 34 weeks' model). Detection rates for the All PET model were 18%, 50% and 62% at a FPR of 5%, 10% and 20%, respectively. For the PET >or= 34 weeks model these detection rates were 6%, 46% and 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Even though the individual odds estimation is too low to represent the real risk of PET, the recently published logistic regression models detected more than 60% of PET at a FPR of 20% for both All PET and PET >or= 34 weeks models. Using these models in clinical practice does not seem to give any significant improvement over Doppler alone in the prediction of PET, but the use of a PET-specific odds instead of an actual Doppler value alone seems to be useful for clinical management.
Simonazzi G, Vicenzi C, Rizzo MA, Farina A, Gabrielli S, Arcelli D, et al. (2007). Prospective evaluation of the risk of pre-eclampsia using logistic regression analysis. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY, 30(3), 312-317 [10.1002/uog.4063].
Prospective evaluation of the risk of pre-eclampsia using logistic regression analysis.
SIMONAZZI, GIULIANA;FARINA, ANTONIO;PILU, GIANLUIGI;RIZZO, NICOLA
2007
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To calculate the risk of developing pre-eclampsia (PET) in a consecutive series of low-risk women at 18-24 weeks' gestation, using recently published logistic regression models. METHODS: This was a prospective study, with complete follow-up, in a consecutive series of unselected low-risk singleton pregnancies. Uterine artery pulsatility index as well as a combination of maternal factors were recorded at 18-24 weeks' gestation. The distribution of the estimated risks for the 16 PET patients was compared with that obtained for 136 women who had a normal pregnancy, as assessed by routine testing. A receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the detection rate at fixed false-positive rates (FPRs) of 5%, 10% and 20% and the corresponding odds cut-offs. RESULTS: Just 1/16 (6.2%) women with PET developed the disease before the 34(th) week of gestation. Using the 'All PET' logistic regression model, for 16 PET cases the overall median odds was 1 : 1454, higher compared with that of 1 : 41635 estimated for controls. Using the 'PET >or= 34 weeks' model, the median odds of the 15 women who developed PET late was 1 : 3405, compared with 1 : 40785 for controls. In the case of PET before 34 weeks, the risk was 1 : 426373 vs. 1 : 4159823126 estimated for controls ('PET < 34 weeks' model). Detection rates for the All PET model were 18%, 50% and 62% at a FPR of 5%, 10% and 20%, respectively. For the PET >or= 34 weeks model these detection rates were 6%, 46% and 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Even though the individual odds estimation is too low to represent the real risk of PET, the recently published logistic regression models detected more than 60% of PET at a FPR of 20% for both All PET and PET >or= 34 weeks models. Using these models in clinical practice does not seem to give any significant improvement over Doppler alone in the prediction of PET, but the use of a PET-specific odds instead of an actual Doppler value alone seems to be useful for clinical management.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
