Sea level rise and coastal flood protection in Cesenatico, Italy.

Within the THESEUS project (www.theseusproject.eu) detailed analysis of climate change scenarios, in terms of surge and wave climate changes, together with the related flooding scenarios are performed in the Emilia Romagna coastal area for assessing littoral risk and possible mitigation measures. Following the indication of the IPPC, meteorological data from the A1B scenario, computed as a regional downscaling from a global climate model, are analyzed and used to force a finite element coastal model in the study area. As a chain from the global to the local scale marine variables, in terms of sea level variation, wave climate and statistics on extreme events are computed and provided for the implementation of detailed flooding models in the Cesenatico area. Four simulations are carried out for the periods 1960-1990, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2100, from which useful engineering information are derived, such as the joint statistics of extreme wave height and surge, which are clearly positively correlated, and the lack of correlation between extreme significant wave height and wave steepness. An overview of the site, including defense works and strategy is provided and discussed based on the climate scenarios and corresponding flooding maps. Keywords Meteorological