A spatio-temporal analysis of migration rates in the Emilia-Romagna region

Migration - the movement of people from one location to another on any geographic scale - affects both the areas of origin and of destination. The aim of the present analysis is to understand how municipalities’ net migration rates are influenced by the demographic structure of the population. The analysis is conducted on the 341 municipalities within the Emilia-Romagna Region of Italy, by means of a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model. The need to take account for spatial dependence is demonstrated by comparing a spatial and a non-spatial model. Model hierarchy enables us to highlight province-specific temporal trends for both Italian and foreign flows: a decreasing trend is evident for Italians, while an increasing trend is observed for foreigners. At a spatial level, we show that the contribution of foreigners to population growth is higher than that of Italians migrants. Italian net migration rates are also negative in many municipalities that are losing their Italian population and increasing the number of foreigners residing there.