The Future of EU-Russia Relations. Four Scenarios to 2035

This policy paper offers a reflection on the future of EU-Russia relations. First, the paper provides a snapshot of the status quo, with an emphasis on the economic, cultural and military dimensions of the relationship. Second, the paper explores in greater depth how the Russian elites and broader population view the future of relations with Europe. It also analyses strategic developments on the EU’s North-Eastern flank and the changing energy security landscape for Europe. Third, the paper takes stock of these elements to outline potential scenarios of EU-Russia relations leading up to 2035. The conclusion draws broad policy insights from these scenarios to help the EU navigate risks its relationship with Moscow.