This article introduces a parametric mixed-tail quantile model which flexibly combines Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull tail behaviours through weighted quantile functions. Unlike classical extreme value models, our approach simultaneously captures multiple tail types, enhancing finite-sample adaptability and modelling accuracy. The extension of the approach for the context of regression for extremes is here termed mixed-tail quantile regression. Parameters are estimated using a computationally efficient least squares approach based on the expected order statistics. We establish asymptotic properties and address inference challenges via bootstrap methods. Theoretical results, including tail dominance and adaptive bias–variance decomposition, guide practical quantile estimation. Simulations and an application on global ice extents demonstrate improved performance in modelling extreme quantiles.

Redivo, E., Farcomeni, A., Viroli, C. (2026). Mixed-tail quantile functions for extreme value analysis. STATISTICAL MODELLING, NA, 1-19 [10.1177/1471082x261467228].

Mixed-tail quantile functions for extreme value analysis

Edoardo Redivo;Alessio Farcomeni;Cinzia Viroli
2026

Abstract

This article introduces a parametric mixed-tail quantile model which flexibly combines Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull tail behaviours through weighted quantile functions. Unlike classical extreme value models, our approach simultaneously captures multiple tail types, enhancing finite-sample adaptability and modelling accuracy. The extension of the approach for the context of regression for extremes is here termed mixed-tail quantile regression. Parameters are estimated using a computationally efficient least squares approach based on the expected order statistics. We establish asymptotic properties and address inference challenges via bootstrap methods. Theoretical results, including tail dominance and adaptive bias–variance decomposition, guide practical quantile estimation. Simulations and an application on global ice extents demonstrate improved performance in modelling extreme quantiles.
2026
Redivo, E., Farcomeni, A., Viroli, C. (2026). Mixed-tail quantile functions for extreme value analysis. STATISTICAL MODELLING, NA, 1-19 [10.1177/1471082x261467228].
Redivo, Edoardo; Farcomeni, Alessio; Viroli, Cinzia
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/1081552
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