A Vulnerability Lens for Intuitive-Logic Scenarios

Exploration of possibilities by means of intuitive logic is hampered by large numbers of scenarios, which easily exceeds the limits imposed by human bounded rationality. While many practitioners constrain their scenarios within a $2 \times 2$ matrix by design, more structured approaches point to rationales such as eliminating contradictory possibilities, adding opposites to increase diversity, and checking the vulnerability of scenarios with respect to contingencies that are out of control. In general, vulnerability evaluation is based on assessment of probabilities. With this paper I propose an evaluation of scenarios vulnerability based on the structure of connections between evoked alternatives and perceived consequences. Since this method does not require any probability assessment, it can be applied even when reliable estimates of probabilities are not available.