Korean peninsula 2025: Political transition and strategic consolidation

The year 2025 marked a phase of transition and strategic recalibration on the Ko- rean peninsula, shaped by institutional crisis in the South, political consolidation in the North and shifting regional alignments. In South Korea, the confirmation of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment in April formally closed the constitutional crisis triggered by the declaration of martial law in December 2024. The subsequent presidential election in June brought Lee Jae-myung to power, inaugurating a new political cycle characterized by attempts to restore institutional stability, pursue judi- cial accountability and relaunch economic growth amid persistent polarization. In North Korea, 2025 was less a year of policy innovation than one of consolidation. The leadership focused on reinforcing elite discipline and advancing military mod- ernization in preparation for the 9th Congress of the Workers’ Party. Inter-Korean relations reflected both continuity and recalibration. The first half of the year followed the established pattern of deterrence and missile activity, while af- ter June Seoul attempted cautious de-escalatory measures and renewed proposals for phased denuclearization, which was met with limited reciprocity from Pyongyang. Internationally, North Korea deepened its strategic partnership with Russia while also trying to diversify its diplomatic efforts. South Korea sought to rebuild diplomatic credibility and manage alliance relations in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment, after Trump’s election.