Four factors as key performance indicators of game outcomes in the Women’s U19 World Cup and Women’s EuroBasket 2025

Background: Among the most influential statistical metrics in basketball is Oliver’s Four Factors model, which includes effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover percentage (TOV%), offensive rebound percentage (ORB%), and free-throw rate (FTR). Although widely used in men’s basketball, its application in women’s competitions, particularly at youth levels, remains limited. This study examined the predictive value of Oliver’s Four Factors (eFG%, TOV%, ORB%, FTR) for game outcomes in women’s basketball at the FIBA U19 Women’s Basketball World Cup 2025 (WCU19w 2025) and Women’s EuroBasket 2025 (EBw 2025). Methods: A total of 85 games (170 team performances) were analysed across both tournaments. Game-related statistics were extracted from official FIBA sources and used to compute the Four Factors. Differences between winning and defeated teams were assessed, and binary logistic regression was applied to identify key predictors. Results: Winning teams at the WCU19w 2025 showed higher eFG%, ORB%, and lower TOV% (p <.05), with eFG% and ORB% identified as significant predictors. At the EBw 2025, significant differences were found in eFG%, TOV%, and FTR (p <.05), with eFG% as the strongest predictor, followed by TOV% and FTR. Conclusions: Overall, eFG% was the most consistent determinant of success across both competitions. However, performance indicators varied by category: offensive rebounding was more relevant in U19, while free-throw rate and turnover control were more important in senior teams. These findings support the applicability of the Four Factors model in women’s basketball and highlight the need to adjust performance priorities according to competitive level.