From Monopoly to Dual Patronage: The Evolution of Russian and Chinese Influence in Central Asia

This article examines the evolution of Russian and Chinese influence in Central Asia through the conceptual framework of Patron-Client Relations (PCRs). While Moscow traditionally held the role of regional patron by leveraging a wide spectrum of legacy ties, Beijing's rising economic power and political ambitions have led to speculations about Russia’s receding role. To shed light on this dynamic, the article operationalises key PCR properties across political, economic, and security domains. By comparing the 1991-2019 baseline of Russian primacy with the post-2020 era, we show that China has institutionalised its political and economic role, but Russia has retained a resilient patronal standing. Rather than a mere displacement of power, Central Asia is witnessing the transition towards a dual patronage system sustained by a broader Russian-Chinese strategic alignment and navigated by Central Asian clients leveraging their increased agency.