Modelling the human impact on hydrological cycle: The MISDc v3.1 model

This study presents MISDc v3.1, a process-based, flexible and open-source hydrological model developed to simulate complex water dynamics in large and human-impacted river systems. The model is applied to the Po River basin, Italy, subjected to strong anthropogenic impact. Calibration uses hydrometeorological data from 2000 to 2023, while validation is performed through multi-variable comparison against observed river discharge and satellite-based measurements of soil moisture, evaporation, snow water equivalent, and irrigation volumes. Quantitative performance assessment indicates strong simulation accuracy across multiple gauge stations (modified Kling–Gupta Efficiency = 0.88–0.93). The inclusion of irrigation and reservoir operation modules markedly enhances river discharge simulations, particularly during low-flow conditions and the 2022–2023 extreme drought. Uncertainty, assessed through the BLUECAT method, fosters a better understanding of model reliability across flow regimes. Owing to its Python-based and open-access architecture, MISDc v3.1 is easily transferable to other basins, offering a robust and flexible tool for integrated water resources management.