In 2024, the EU Council reformed the framework governing countryspecific medium-term fiscal-structural plans, introducing, among other elements, expenditure-based targets for Member States. This reform increases the importance of timely data on key public deficit aggregates, which are currently released quarterly with a delay of approximately 90 days. This paper examines whether established econometric methods, such as MIDAS models or temporal disaggregation, can be used to produce reliable nowcasts of key aggregates of public finance. The analysis relies on available monthly data on government revenues and investment spending.
Bacchini, F., Di Iorio, F., Golinelli, R. (2026). Nowcasting Public Finance Main Aggregates Using New Data Sources. Bari : Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro.
Nowcasting Public Finance Main Aggregates Using New Data Sources
Roberto GolinelliMembro del Collaboration Group
2026
Abstract
In 2024, the EU Council reformed the framework governing countryspecific medium-term fiscal-structural plans, introducing, among other elements, expenditure-based targets for Member States. This reform increases the importance of timely data on key public deficit aggregates, which are currently released quarterly with a delay of approximately 90 days. This paper examines whether established econometric methods, such as MIDAS models or temporal disaggregation, can be used to produce reliable nowcasts of key aggregates of public finance. The analysis relies on available monthly data on government revenues and investment spending.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
