Between Numbers and Perceptions: Official Statistics and Attitudes toward Immigrants

Drawing on the Intergroup Competition Hypothesis and the Integrated Intergroup Threat Theory, this study examines the prevalence of misperceptions about the size of the immigrant population in Italy and whether correcting these misperceptions affects attitudes toward migrants in a country increasingly characterized as a migration state. Specifically, it assesses the impact of providing corrective statistical information on the share of children born to families with at least one immigrant parent and on how this share has changed over the past 25 years. The analysis relies on a large-scale multi-arm survey experiment (n = 2,000) conducted in Italy in 2024. Participants first estimated the current share of children born to immigrant families and its evolution over time. One treatment group received accurate information about the current share, while another received information about its increase over time. Subsequently, all respondents including both treatment and control groups answered a series of questions measuring different dimensions of attitudes toward migrants and their children. The results show that, with few exceptions and some instances of backlash, individuals tend to resist revising their attitudes toward migrants even when presented with corrective information based on objective statistics.