Pastoral system adaptation to multiple drivers of change: a case study from the French Alps

Alpine pastoral systems are examples of human-managed landscapes in which traditional farming practices have long beenadapted to the availability and variability of semi-natural forage resources. These systems are increasingly exposed to multiplestressors, among which climate change is expected to play a significant role in shaping future management decisions, withsubstantial socio-economic and environmental implications for both pastoral systems and mountain communities. However,pastoral systems are complex socio-ecological systems driven by a multitude of interrelated drivers that generate direct andindirect feedback mechanisms, thereby shaping the adaptive responses of Alpine farming systems. This study presents aparticipatory approach that integrates diverse sources and forms of knowledge, including the co-construction of cognitivemaps with local farmers and scenario-based simulations of potential impacts on the local pastoral system. The objectiveis to identify the primary drivers of vulnerability, understand the cause–effect relationships, and assess the enabling andconstraining factors that influence farmers’ adaptive capacity. The findings highlight the critical role of unpredictabilityassociated with climate variability and wildlife predation in shaping farmers’ decision-making. The participatory processwith local stakeholders also underscores the growing importance of addressing increased workloads arising from climate-related stresses, predation pressure, and administrative burdens linked to agricultural policy. Among the proposed strategies,enhancing the availability and competence of skilled shepherds emerges as a particularly effective intervention. This measureis shown to mitigate farmers’ workload, strengthen the adaptive capacity of the pastoral system, and ultimately support thecontinued use and maintenance of upland pastures, thereby countering ongoing trends of mountain grassland abandonment.