The evanescent concept of Cyber power: a data-driven analysis on Cyber operations and Regime type

Cyberspace is now an integral part of International politics (Ip). States use it to influence and coerce, a capacity often labelled as Cyber power (Cp), characterized by being multidimensional, as it spans from cyber warfare to economics, and is hard to measure. Many observers argue that less democratic States (e.g., Russia, China) rely more on such operations for intelligence, disruption, and psychological effects. This article measures Cp through its offensive/operational facet and tests whether regime type is associated with observed sponsorship of Cyber operations (Co). To do so, we employ an original index and reputable datasets that allow us to examine this facet through quantitative and statistical measures. We find a sustained rise in reported, attributed operations over time and a persistent concentration among a small set of sponsors, which speaks to the diffusion and importance of Cp. Once that concentration and the descriptive structure are taken into account, regime type is deemed to be a weak standalone predictor of observed sponsorship. As such, the results suggest that Cp functions as a complementary instrument of statecraft across regime types.