Parental Loss in Early Years and Adult Family Formation: Evidence From U.S. Cohorts Born 1850–1910

Objective This paper examines the long-term impact of parental loss in early years on family formation as adults in U.S. cohorts born between 1850 and 1910, focusing on age assortative mating and the timing of first childbirth. Background Early parental loss can profoundly shape children's adult family formation trajectories. However, its impact remains unclear due to multiple mechanisms—such as social control and economic constraints—as well as selection into parental loss and stratified family formation patterns. Empirical evidence on the long-term effects of parental loss during young ages remains limited. Method The analyses leverage two separate data sources. Crowdsourced genealogical records are used to investigate the relationship between parental death and family formation. To address selection bias, the analysis employs family fixed effects, comparing siblings who experienced parental loss before or after reaching adulthood. Second, historical census data analyzes socio-demographic stratification of parental loss and family formation patterns. Results Initial OLS estimates link parental loss to increased age heterogamy and earlier childbirth, but fixed-effects models show these associations weaken or reverse. Census data confirm selection effects, revealing that disadvantaged individuals are more likely to experience parentless households during childhood, enter age-heterogamous unions, and start families earlier. Conclusion Parental loss in early years correlates with family formation in adulthood, but this appears driven by household selection. Despite data-related limitations, results underscore the role of selection in studying the consequences of parental loss and family structure.