A glimpse on the futures of telecommunication networks: From market, technology and regulation trends to strategic foresight

This paper explores the current state, trends, and possible futures of the telecommunication ecosystem in Italy, outlining strategies for development. We adopt a combined methodology, integrating participatory scenario building through the Nominal Group Technique with a structured literature review. The analysis starts from the current situation (Scenario 1) and major transformation trends (Scenario 2) to project two contrasting futures (Scenario 3), providing a rationale for strategic choices. Various dimensions are considered: market and economic models, technological advancements, and regulatory frameworks, with both European and Italian perspectives. In the market domain, we assess opportunities linked to enabling technologies and digital services built on connectivity. On the technological side, we evaluate the role of network programmability, low-orbit satellites, aerial networks, edge computing, novel materials, and services, while also addressing sustainability and AI integration. The regulatory analysis highlights how evolving policies can impact network evolution and identifies reforms to foster innovation, inclusivity, and industry participation. From this integrated view, we infer two boundary scenarios for 2040: a utopic one, marked by innovation and inclusivity, and a dystopic one, characterized by digital inequality and stagnation. Finally, we outline strategies and policies to steer the telecommunications ecosystem towards the preferable scenario.