Unveiling faint X-ray AGN populations in the NewAthena era: Insights from cosmological simulations

Recent observations expanded our understanding of galaxy formation and evolution, yet key challenges persist in the X- ray regime, crucial for studying active galactic nuclei (AGNs). These limitations drive the development of next-generation observatories such as ESA's Ne wAthena. No w in phase B (preliminary design), the mission requires e xtensiv e testing to ensure compliance with its scientific goals, particularly given the uncertainties surrounding high-redshift AGN. This work leverages the ILLUSTRISTNG cosmological simulation to build an X-ray AGN mock catalogue and assess the performance of NewAthena's Wide Field Imager. We created a supermassive black hole (SMBH) light-cone, spanning 10 deg2 , with corrections to account for the limited resolution of the simulation and X-ray properties derived in post-processing. The resulting catalogue reveals a ∼ 5 × overabundance of faint AGN compared to current X-ray constraints, an inconsistenc y potentially resolv ed by invoking a higher Compton-thick (CTK) fraction and intrinsic X-ray weakness, as suggested by recent JWST findings. An end-to-end survey simulation using SIXTE predicts ∼250 000 AGN detections, including ∼20 000 at z > 3 and 35 in the epoch of reionization (EoR; z > 6); notably, only AGN with LX > 1043.5 erg s -1 are detectable at z > 6. The analysis also forecasts a significant population of detectable CTK AGN, ev en be yond z > 4. These findings suggest X-ray observations will, for the first time, probe a significant AGN population in the EoR, offering new insights into SMBH growth. They also provide key input for refining NewAthena's mission design and optimizing its survey strategy.